I wrote in August that I thought Shohei Ohtani would still get a record-breaking contract even after his elbow injury that precludes him from pitching until 2025, and that he’d still end up underpaid relative to his actual value to his team. I was half right: He got paid, but I’m not sure I could argue he’s underpaid, at least not without knowing a lot more about the Dodgers’ revenues now that he’s signed with the boys in blue.
Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal has some significant deferred money in it, so the AAV of $70 million isn’t quite an accurate rendering of how much he’s going to be paid … but that’s pedantic when it’s the largest contract guarantee to any professional athlete in any sport. He’s a unicorn, and the most valuable player in the sport, whether you’re talking about the postseason award of that name, sabermetric measures of value, or the total revenue he brings to his club just by virtue of being on the roster. It’s possible that $70 million a year isn’t enough to cover it, although I feel more comfortable saying that I just don’t know if he’s underpaid or not, and at least he’s getting paid something close to his actual value.
The Dodgers didn’t lack for production at DH last year, with a .268/.332/.529 line from all their designated hitters in 2023, mostly from the now-departed J.D. Martinez, but Ohtani is obviously an upgrade for every team at DH. He was worth about 4 WAR more than all of the Dodgers’ designated hitters combined last year, referring only to Ohtani’s WAR as a hitter. His .412 OBP in 2023 came from reaching base 245 times in 599 plate appearances, meaning Ohtani reached base more times than all of the Dodgers’ DHs combined in 105 fewer plate appearances. To put it another way, per that same 599 PA, it’s about 48 more times on base — that is, 48 fewer outs made. The value of that varies a little by year, but even if those extra times on base were just walks and singles, it would be worth about 20-25 more runs to the Dodgers’ offense.
Los Angeles had the second-best offense in the NL last year, and they got better. No matter how you slice it, the Dodgers are way better off just for having Ohtani’s bat, before we talk about what his pitching might do for them in 2025 and beyond, or any of that ancillary revenue that drove his contract to new heights.
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